Market Commentary

Market Commentary: One-year Inflation Rate Accelerates and Job Openings Hit All-Time High

U.S. consumer prices continued to go up faster than normal. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.6% last month and has now increased 5.0% over last year (Figure 1). Used car and truck prices rose 7.3% last month and are 29.7% higher over the last year. New car prices increased 1.6%, and …

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Market Commentary: Amid Hiring Challenges, Hourly Earnings Rise, Some Unemployment Benefits Cut

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 559,000 last month (Figure 1). This is much better than last month’s 278,000, but much lower than March’s 785,000 gain. Workers are returning to the labor force more slowly than expected. Businesses are reporting challenges in finding workers. Leisure and hospital …

Market Commentary: Home Prices Surge Over Previous Year; Disposable Income Dips

U.S. home prices continued to march higher. As Figure 1 shows, they have surged 13.2%. The 20-city index has increased slightly more as cities just out of the top 10, such as Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle have experienced very rapid price appreciation. The annualized gains are in line wit …

Market Commentary: S&P Earnings Outperforming, Unemployment Claims Down

S&P 500 earnings were expected to be strong and turned out to be phenomenal. When the final 5% of companies report, first quarter earnings are expected to have increased 51.9%. When the quarter began, earnings growth was expected to be less than 25%. Strong earnings from consumer discre …

Market Commentary: A Muddled Economic Picture, Volatile Markets and Rising Inflation

The U.S. economic picture is looking more muddled than expected. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% last week. Used automobile prices rose quickly in response to the semiconductor shortage limiting new car production and demographic trends boosting demand. Retail sales were expected to bui …

Market Commentary: April Jobs Report Disappoints, Falling Short of Expectations

The U.S. job market added only 266,000 jobs in April, missing expectations of nearly 1 million. March’s gain of more than 900,000 new jobs was revised down to 770,000. The data show the U.S. job market slowed rather than accelerated in April. The leisure and hospitality industry experience …

Market Commentary: GDP Surges After Stimulus, Fed Reiterates Low Interest Rates

U.S. GDP surged an annualized 6.4% in the first quarter (Figure 1). Two rounds of government stimulus helped the economy climb within 0.9% of its all-time high. If expected growth is included, the economy remains 3.7% below pre-COVID trends. Personal income jumped 21.1% from February as a …

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary: One-year Inflation Rate Accelerates and Job Openings Hit All-Time High

Market Commentary: Amid Hiring Challenges, Hourly Earnings Rise, Some Unemployment Benefits Cut

Market Commentary: Home Prices Surge Over Previous Year; Disposable Income Dips

Market Commentary: S&P Earnings Outperforming, Unemployment Claims Down

Market Commentary: A Muddled Economic Picture, Volatile Markets and Rising Inflation

Market Commentary: April Jobs Report Disappoints, Falling Short of Expectations

Market Commentary: GDP Surges After Stimulus, Fed Reiterates Low Interest Rates

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